<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 14 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'>Production Forecasting using Type Wells, Diagnostic Plots and Hybrid Models</span></b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'><o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'>AYUSH RASTOGI</span></b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'>Master</span><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'> of Science in</span><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'> Petroleum Engineering<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'>Date:</span></b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'> Monday, July 28th, 2014<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'>Time:</span></b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'> 9:00 am<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'>Location:</span></b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'> Room 125, Building 9<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'> Energy Research Park<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'> University of Houston<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'>Committee Members:</span></b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'> Dr. W. John Lee, Dr. T</span><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>homas</span><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'> K. Holley, Dr. Robello Samuel<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'>Abstract:</span></b><span style='font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif";color:#0B5394'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;text-align:justify'><span style='color:#0B5394'>With recent advancements in the field of unconventional shale gas production, there lies a need to estimate the gas reserves in the best possible manner. Production forecasting for unconventional wells is one of the areas which is still being explored in the industry. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;text-align:justify'><span style='color:#0B5394'>In order to get the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of unconventional wells, industry uses the method of type wells to calculate well rate. A flaw in the method is identified during the calculation of well rates, which may result in incorrect EUR values. A new method will be proposed to solve this problem, so that a standard can be maintained to forecast the production using type wells. During the analysis of diagnostic plots to identify flow regimes, one of the issues faced is the presence of outliers. The current methods used tend to overlook this problem which not only adds extra noise to the data, but can also cause incorrect interpretation if not removed. An alternative method of removing outliers and filtering data using decline curves is suggested. One of the issues, while creating a reservoir model to forecast production, involves the type of completion design. Application of a homogeneous model in wells where heterogeneous completion is encountered, might lead to an incorrect evaluation. A hybrid reservoir model will be developed to forecast cases with transient and boundary dominated flow. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;text-align:justify'><span style='color:#0B5394'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;text-align:justify'><span style='color:#0B5394'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;text-align:justify'><span style='color:#0B5394'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>